When Dialog Causes Horrific Pain And Suffering

More than 100 rockets hit Israel as its forces strike back at Gaza

http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-israel-military-operation-hamas-20140708-story.html

Clever Saudis, activating Hamas to engage the IDF towards neutralizing the threat of Israel’s participation in the sprawling regional conflict it is driving through ISIS’ military advances in Iraq and Syria. But opening another front in the cold war being waged by the existing regional power (Saudi Arabia) against both emerging (and historic) regional powers (and soon to be USA strategic allies) Iran and Turkey will not upset the power balance there.

The Saudi’s day’s are limited as their oil wealth dries up. They are making moves to expand, consolidate and gain more options with larger regional players at their disposal. They are looking to establish secure gains, to increase their influence in the region now – for their ability to do so will diminish incrementally as does their growth in oil wealth these next few decades. The failed states of Syria and Iraq, as well the instability across the region and exasperated by US withdrawal, create a requisite environment for escalating activities there.

This is the same situation as in Russia to the north. As they face unstoppable population loss (yes, by a third!), Russia is also expanding its influence to extend to include its historic sphere as a defensive play. Russia intends to establish secure gains, to increase their influence in the region for their ability to do so will diminish incrementally as does their population (and ability to man armies and industry). The flash points along its frontier (Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Baltic States, Caucuses, plus the Black and Caspian Seas) are manifestations of this process playing out currently.

Iran is along Russia’s southern border. But as Iran-USA rapprochement is inevitable, Russia’s status as sponsor adjusts to foe and presents a different dynamic in the Caspian and Caucuses. Against the backdrop of this new threat balance, Iran-USA rapprochement will clear the way for foreign investment and NATO protection, that will drive Iran to is historic regional strength and stability.

Turkey, with its vast water access and maritime culture, central location, resources, and historically stable mature political institutions is the natural candidate to fill the ensuing political and economic vacuums that will result from these power plays in the Magreg, Caspian and Black Seas and the Caucuses. Extending back to the Roman Empire and through the Byzantium and Ottoman Empires, the region has in fact been ruled by strong, stable, vibrant governments centered in Turkey. Thus, this would return the region to its historic state.

In fact, this is precisely what is happening today. It is unstoppable and in process. So as horrific as this IDF/Hamas conflict and its expected loss of life will be, the sad truth is there are no gains to be made there for either side. It is actually a political maneuver disguised as military one. This is geo-politics at work as Clausewitz or Sun Tzu would have waged it. It is only a distraction, meant to exhaust Israeli resources and public support for war while changing the dialog Saudi Arabia is having with with the USA and its client states in the region – Israel, Turkey and soon to be Iran.

Israel and her people will be fine. We can withstand yet another dialog though we will get hurt. But we will come back stronger still. And in a few decades, with technology innovation, banking and now one of the largest new oil fields in the world, we know that WE will still be here when this is over.

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