Geographic and Demographic Megacycles

McKinsey research indicates that 46 of the world’s 200 largest cities will be in China by 2025, a sign of the eastward migration of the global economy’s center of gravity….

The labor force, on which economic activity depends, is both aging and shrinking. It is expected to contract by 11 percent in China by 2050, even as the country’s economy expands. The shrinkage in continental Europe is expected to be even more dramatic. As life spans are growing and birthrates falling, furthermore, an aging working population in advanced and emerging economies will be supporting ever-higher numbers of retirees.

Among the major economies, only the United States has a demographic profile favorable to long-term economic growth.

For the rest of the leading economies, expected productivity improvements will not bridge the gap. Without a fundamental economic and cultural shift, favoring continued participation of older workers and the introduction of more women workers and immigrant labor, many economies are likely to face serious growth constraints within ten years


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